North Carolina St.
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
5  Andrew Colley SR 30:51
156  Edward Crawford SO 32:06
314  George Parsons FR 32:35
332  Jacob Thomson FR 32:38
419  Michael Mansy JR 32:49
609  Sam Roberson FR 33:12
837  Matt Schick JR 33:36
937  Robert Mintz SO 33:45
1,178  Vibushan Sivakumaran SO 34:06
1,232  John Harwell JR 34:10
1,260  Craig Engels FR 34:12
1,294  Adrian Ross FR 34:15
National Rank #31 of 311
Southeast Region Rank #4 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 12.6%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.7%


Regional Champion 0.5%
Top 5 in Regional 78.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Andrew Colley Edward Crawford George Parsons Jacob Thomson Michael Mansy Sam Roberson Matt Schick Robert Mintz Vibushan Sivakumaran John Harwell Craig Engels
Roy Griak Invitational (Gold) 09/28 807 31:39 32:38 32:22 32:39 33:10 33:21 33:16 33:26 33:42 34:13
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 683 30:50 32:07 33:06 32:10 32:56 33:04 33:06 34:16 34:03
ACC Championships 11/01 698 30:51 31:43 32:58 33:34 32:33 33:23 33:34 34:17 34:29
3 Stripe Invite 11/09 34:13 34:44
Southeast Region Championships 11/15 476 30:45 31:32 31:58 32:06 32:44 32:33 36:33
NCAA Championship 11/23 761 30:44 32:36 32:35 33:05 32:44 33:40 34:07





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 12.6% 24.9 564 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.3
Region Championship 100% 4.6 155 0.5 2.6 10.4 38.5 26.5 14.7 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrew Colley 100.0% 6.5 2.9 8.7 11.4 10.3 7.8 6.2 4.8 3.9 4.1 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8
Edward Crawford 14.9% 107.6
George Parsons 12.6% 178.7
Jacob Thomson 12.6% 183.9
Michael Mansy 12.6% 202.6
Sam Roberson 12.6% 229.7
Matt Schick 12.8% 243.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrew Colley 1.0 63.0 17.4 8.1 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Edward Crawford 18.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.6 3.4 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.6 4.3 3.9 4.9 4.2 4.4 4.1 3.7 3.8 2.9 3.3 3.0
George Parsons 36.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.4
Jacob Thomson 38.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.3
Michael Mansy 47.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6
Sam Roberson 70.5
Matt Schick 96.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.5% 100.0% 0.5 0.5 1
2 2.6% 100.0% 2.6 2.6 2
3 10.4% 53.7% 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 4.8 5.6 3
4 38.5% 8.9% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.8 35.1 3.4 4
5 26.5% 1.6% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 26.1 0.4 5
6 14.7% 14.7 6
7 4.8% 4.8 7
8 1.5% 1.5 8
9 0.2% 0.2 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 12.6% 0.5 2.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 2.6 87.4 3.2 9.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Georgia 55.0% 2.0 1.1
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 2.0 0.3
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 1.7
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 7.0